For forecasting the processes of snow melting a computer model has been worked out by the specialists of the Department of Water and Wastewater Engineering of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics and those of the Water Resources Center (VITUKI Plc.). The study has been commissioned by the Hungarian Water Authority.
The model
The model takes into account the data provided by satellite and radar measurements, the measured amount of the snow, of the water contained by snow, and the medium interval meteorological forecasts.
The model yields three-dimensional pictures about the flood. The engineers controlled the model giving in the data of the 2001 flood, and the pictures provided by the model described the real processes.
Due to the new model the water management bodies, using the measured data, can be preparedin due time to guard against the dangerous events.
The situation
At the beginning of the year 2003 the catchment of Danube above Nagymaros is covered with snow 70% more, than the average. Catchment of Tisza above Szeged contains 300% more snow as usual. The estimated water amount in catchment of Danube equals to nine “Balaton Lake”, the amount in catchment of Tisza is comparable to 4,5 times the water amount in Balaton.
The data are similar at the Danube to those in 1965, at the Tisza in 1986. Under unfavorable meteorological condition (sudden warming combined with precipitation) a major flood is very probable.
Further, for the amount of the snow lays at elevations less than 500 m, there is high probability of emerging severe excess water conditions. The estimations for areas to be covered with excess water lay between 50-60 thousand (optimal case) and 300 thousand hectares (worst scenario).
z.e.
Information & Contact:
Dr Miklós Varga, General Director
Márvány u. 1c.
H-1011 Budapest
Phone: +36 1 225 4400
Dr László Koncsos
Department of Water and Wastewater Engineering
Budapest University of Technology and Economics
Müegyetem rakpart 3.
H-1111 Budapest
Phone: +36 1 463 3752
Fax: +36 1 463 3753
